Today I want to discuss a more technical aspect of poker, and that is the concept of reverse implied odds. Let’s break down what reverse implied odds are, where they most commonly occur and how we can build our strategy around them.
Naturally, to understand the idea of reverse implied odds, we must first break down implied odds.
Implied Odds in Poker
To be succinct, implied odds are the factor of winning more money later in the hand. While a player may be receiving immediate pot odds at a certain price, there are additional implied odds that may swing the decision in the hand a different way. The best example and most common spot where I use implied odds is with drawing hands in No Limit Hold ‘Em.
Let’s say we are facing a pot-sized bet with the nut flush draw in a multi-way pot. We will only make our flush around 20% of the time on the next card. The immediate pot odds will not be attractive enough to chase a 20% draw. However, we look at our stacks and our opponents’ and see we are playing very deep-stacked. We also know that our opponents can be sticky and hate to fold. This is a scenario where the implied odds have now swayed our strategy from a call to a fold. We know that if we do make our nut flush, we will likely win a very big pot.
Pocket pairs in No Limit Hold ‘Em are another common example of implied odds. Flopping a set with a pocket pair is a well-disguised hand that can win a big pot. However, we cannot put in a lot of money before the flop with all pocket pairs all the time chasing sets. That’s where implied odds come in. We have to factor in our opponent’s perceived strength and stack depth. How often are we going to flop a set and double up? How is the hand going to proceed along other lines? Implied odds are the reason hands like low pocket pairs aren’t as attractive at shallower stack depths.
…Now Reverse It
Therefore, reverse implied odds is the idea of losing more money later in the hand. That is, putting money in on the current street with the possibility of making the second best hand and having to call more money on later streets. An example of reverse implied odds would be chasing a low flush draw multi-way in Pot Limit Omaha. We can pay now in an attempt to make our hand, but there is a decent chance that even if we make our hand, we will lose more money later to a higher flush.
Reverse implied odds occur in Hold ‘Em as well. We even see them affecting our preflop ranges. Unsuited broadway hands like KJo and QJo play poorly in full ring games at deeper stack depths because they can flop top pair, be outkicked by a dominating hand, and lose a big pot. However, at more shallow stack depths, these hands become more attractive because there is less money behind and our threshold to play for stacks is lower. When a player flops top pair with 20 big blinds, he/she’s less concerned about running into a higher kicker as there’s less to lose.
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