One’s confidence in their abilities at the poker tables is one of the most overlooked aspects in poker. Overconfidence and underconfidence are two common mental traps that poker players can fall into. Both can lead to poor decision-making and costly mistakes.
I recently ran a poll online about which end of the spectrum is more detrimental to a poker player’s development. This poll sparked some interesting debate and led me to write this post exploring the intricacies of confidence at the table.
Can You Be Too Confident While Playing Poker?
Overconfidence is the belief that you are better than you actually are. It can lead to a number of problems, including overlooking your errors in a delusion of infallibility, and ending up in games against players much stronger than you (at stakes you may not be able to afford)!
I see overconfidence frequently in players who achieve tremendous success early in their career. Whether it be dominating a local cash game for a few years or a quick string of big tournament scores, these sorts of results can give a less self-aware player a false sense of invincibility. Overconfidence of this variety is common especially in young up-and-coming players, who haven’t been through extended downswings or haven’t encountered players objectively much better than them. These players feel like they will just keep winning forever.
However, being overly confident is not without its benefits as well. Any winning poker player should have confidence in their abilities and sit down at the table expecting to win. Overconfident players obviously have this trait in spades. When cards break in their favor, these players are able to ride that train of confidence and luck to victory at a high rate.
Shot-taking is also much more common with overconfident players as they set lofty goals and are not afraid to continuously chase the dream of playing higher and higher stakes. Obviously this can result in going broke at a high frequency, but if a player is able to recalibrate, be objective about their play, and make improvements along the way, there is a chance for these shots to work out. From a spectator’s point of view, I would much rather observe the path and trajectory of an overconfident player than an underconfident one!
…But What If You’re Not Confident Enough While Playing Poker?
Underconfidence is the opposite of overconfidence. It is the belief that you are worse than you actually are. Underconfidence may even be more detrimental than overconfidence when it comes down to evaluating poker play. An underconfident player is much less likely to pull the trigger on a big bluff, big laydown, or big call because they don’t have faith in themselves to be correct.
In today’s solver era of poker, this manifests itself in making deviations from “standard” play, where underconfident players are going to be unwilling to step out of line and make big non-standard plays. Fear of being wrong or looking stupid can be a constant worry in the mind of an underconfident player.
Long-term, underconfident players will often find themselves stuck at lower stakes than they should be. Oftentimes, the risk of stepping up stakes and losing is too much to handle and these players would rather remain in a smaller, more comfortable game where they are one of the better players. The idea of playing a bigger game against better players is a daunting idea to the underconfident player.
Financially, underconfident players can still carve out a niche of profitability by game-selecting and playing within their skills and means. They tend to avoid the pitfalls of the overconfident player in taking shots at higher stakes because they simply stay in their lane. However, underconfident players have a much lower skill ceiling as a player. If you never test yourself against strong competition and continue to set higher goals, then your play will plateau naturally.
Finding Balance Between the Two
The key is to find a balance between overconfidence and underconfidence. You need to be confident in your abilities and maintain your poker face, but you also need to be realistic about your limitations. If you can find this balance, you will be able to make better decisions and avoid the costly mistakes that both overconfidence and underconfidence can lead to.
Remaining objective about your play and doing frequent self-evaluation has always worked for me. If this is difficult for you to do, I’d recommend seeking out other players at your skill level or higher and work on evaluating your play together.
Finding the right balance between overconfidence and underconfidence is a challenge, but it is essential for poker success. By following these tips, you can improve your chances of making better decisions and avoiding costly mistakes.
By the way, I talk about confidence, strategy, and other pro insights and tips in my recent interview with Rich Horwath on the Strategic Minds podcast, which you can watch below.
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