Bluffing, simply put, is an act of deception. It’s meant to make your opponent think that your hand is stronger than it actually is, with the intention of getting your opponent to fold.

One effective way to increase your win rate at low-stakes games is to become better at playing the river. The river is the last community card dealt, and your poker bluff strategy during this stage can significantly impact the outcome of the game.  

Bet sizes (and pot sizes) are higher on average on this street than on any other. You stand to gain the most by mastering this street, particularly by bluffing. Read on to find river play strategy tips to help you learn how to bluff the river like a pro. 

What Is Bluffing the River?

The river is the final betting round in poker, and river bluffing means making a bet or raise on this final round with a hand that may not be strong enough to win at showdown. 

The aim of a river bluff is to try to convince opponents that you have a better hand than you actually do. This often leads to them folding stronger hands.

To bluff successfully, a player needs to have a good understanding of their opponents’ playing styles and the overall dynamics of the hand. Bluffing in poker is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. 

The Technical Aspects of River Bluffing

More often than not, players simply don’t bluff on the river enough, or when they do, they pick the wrong spots. It can be the most daunting street to bluff as there is no safety net. Once you’re caught, there are no more cards to come, which is why many players revisit polarized vs. linear ranges to understand how betting ranges narrow on the river.

On top of understanding your opponents’ playing styles and the betting history of the hand, you also need to consider your image, your position, the strength of your hand, and the size of the bet. 

To unpack the technical aspects further, below are three poker tips to help you bluff better on the river.

1. Follow the Minimum Defense Frequency Concept

Minimum defense frequency (MDF) is the fundamental concept upon which bluffing, particularly river bluffing, is based. MDF is a simple equation and looks like this:  risk / (reward + risk). 

If the solution to this equation is lower than the frequency at which your bluff is expected to work, then you’ve made a profit. This is what poker players call a +EV (positive expected value) bluff. As an example, say the pot is 50 big blinds, and you bet 66% of the pot and expect the bluff to work 45% of the time. Using the formula, the calculation would be as follows: 33bb / (50bb + 33bb) = 0.397.

That means a 39.7% frequency. That’s the MDF that your opponent must reach in order to prevent you from generating profit with your bluff. You know that your opponent is folding 45% of the time, which makes this an immensely profitable bluff. 

2. Be Mindful of Blockers

You may check your HUD (head-up display) or poker hand database and see that, on average, a spot is over-folded by a few percentages. This does not mean that all non-made hands should be bluffed. Understanding blockers in poker is crucial, as the cards you hold can heavily influence an opponent’s folding range.

The cards you hold can have a significant impact on the actual folding frequency of your opponent. Strong blockers may lead your opponent to fold a few percentage points, or even more, while weak blockers might result in more frequent poker calls.

3. Remember You Are Playing Against a Human

In live poker, you are playing against a human, not a computer program, so it’s worth knowing how to adjust your poker strategy to unpredictable players.

Equilibrium strategies on the river are extremely fragile, meaning these poker programs can make drastic changes based on slight alterations of inputs or situations. For instance, having one bluff strategy too many can shift the program from cautious to aggressive, while a shortage of bluff combos may prompt the solver to adopt a folding strategy.

Professional players are better at predicting how their opponents will approach a given situation, allowing them to extract more chips out of the pots that they play for.

Improving Your Win Rate: Knowing When To Bluff the River

Making good bluffs on the river (and avoiding the bad ones) and understanding the rationale behind it can significantly boost your chances of winning in low-stakes poker. It’s not overly complicated, either. Which is why knowing when to bluff the river and reviewing your general poker bluffing strategies can also help reinforce the principles behind disciplined decision-making.

First of all, make sure that you are making bluffs more often against the players who will actually fold. Their WTSD% (went to showdown percentage) is a great indication of this. 

Inexperienced or recreational players are the types you want to avoid bluffing, while the tight regulars will be more susceptible. 

Secondly, be aware of what the community cards are and who they are likely to favor. Also, if you do decide to make a bluff, make sure that you can think of several value hands that you would play the exact same way.

Test Your Bluffing Strategy at BetMGM

At the poker table, you should always have some bluffs in your range, even if you think your opponent will overcall. While it might seem daunting, you don’t want to be seen as a timid player, especially once you understand how flop, turn, and river cards can shape betting lines.

Register with BetMGM to play online poker with real money. New players can even benefit from a competitive online poker welcome bonus when they’re ready to sign up and put their strategy into practice.