In the classic Goldilocks fairy tale, a curious girl stumbles upon a house in the woods. Inside, she encounters three bowls of porridge: one too hot, one too cold, and one just right. This “Goldilocks principle” teaches us the value of balance, and it has surprising relevance in the world of poker. 

Choosing the right stakes — your personal “just right” — is one of the most critical decisions you’ll make as a player. Too high, and you risk losing more than your bankroll can handle. Too low, and you may stifle your growth as a competitor. Playing at the right stakes gives you the best probability of optimal performance. 

Greater Risk at Excessive Stakes

Let’s start with what happens when you play stakes that are too big for you. This is a common mistake, especially for poker players who are overconfident or trying to chase losses. At higher stakes, the competition is fiercer. You’re up against seasoned opponents with deep poker bankrolls. If your bankroll isn’t large enough to absorb the inevitable swings or your skills aren’t sharp enough to stay competitive, you can quickly find yourself in a financial and psychological tailspin.

The stress of playing above your comfort level can also lead to suboptimal decisions. Imagine sitting at a table knowing that a single hand could wipe out weeks or months of progress. That kind of pressure can paralyze even the most experienced players, leading to mistakes like playing too conservatively, overbluffing, or tilting after a big loss. I’ve witnessed a lot of these situations in my experience over the years, and these players playing over their head are easy to spot for the regulars in the bigger games.  

Is Playing It Too Small Playing It Too Safe?

On the flip side, playing stakes that are too small for your skill level can be equally detrimental, though in less obvious ways. While it might seem safe, sticking to low stakes poker games indefinitely can hinder your development. You’re less likely to encounter players who challenge you, which means you’re not improving your game. Furthermore, the money you win at lower stakes might not justify the time and effort you invest.

There’s also a psychological toll to playing below your potential. If you’re capable of competing at higher levels but refuse to take that step, you risk losing motivation. The game becomes less exciting, and complacency sets in. Without the right level of challenge, your edge can dull over time, making it harder to level up when you finally decide to move up in stakes. 

There’s also the challenge of playing your best when the money does not feel meaningful. I’ve certainly had a few sessions playing smaller stakes than I’d like to be playing (usually waiting for a bigger game to open or start), and have felt this lack of interest or disconnect from the game. Oftentimes I would find myself playing more aggressively than normal and really forcing the action, attempting to make the game play bigger and closer to the stakes I’d like to play. And while this maniacal aggression can pan out in our favor occasionally, it is not an advisable long-term strategy. 

Steps To Find a Balance That Is Just Right

So, how do you find your “Goldilocks Zone” in poker? Start by looking into a good poker bankroll management strategy. A general rule of thumb is to have at least 20-30 buy-ins for a given stake in cash games, and at least 100 buy-ins for tournaments, though this number can vary depending on your risk tolerance and playing style.

Next, evaluate your skill level. Are you consistently beating your current game? If so, it might be time to move up. Finally, consider your comfort level. The right stakes should challenge you but not overwhelm you. The money won or lost in a session should feel meaningful but not jarring to your overall financial picture. 

Poker is a game of calculated risks, and knowing when to push yourself and when to pull back is an essential skill. By playing in your Goldilocks Zone, you’ll maximize both your growth and enjoyment of the game. Remember, poker isn’t just about winning — it’s about playing your best. And that’s a lot easier when the stakes are just right.

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